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Wisconsin was narrowly won by President Biden in 2020 by less than one percentage point, and the state is still quite divided. According to a recent Fox News poll of Wisconsin voters, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson and Democratic Gov. Tony Evers are both fighting hard to preserve their positions.
Mandela Barnes, a Democrat, is three points (45%–48%) behind Johnson in the fight for the Senate. The majority of that hasn’t altered from last month, but Barnes had a four-point lead in August.
Voters in Wisconsin on their preferences for the Senate election of 2022. Johnson’s lead is within the poll’s margin of error, and there are sufficiently independent and third-party voters to change the outcome of the race either way.
It’s a two-point contest among the subgroup of only those who have already voted or who indicate they will definitely vote (a 10 out of 10). Johnson has 48 percent compared to 46 percent for Barnes.
Ask Wisconsin voters who have already cast their ballots or who plan to do so about their preference for the Senate. Barnes is supported by the same percentage of Democrats (93%) as Johnson is by Republicans (93%). Barnes is favored by independents by 7 points.
Due to the fact that more Wisconsin voters self-identify as Republicans than Democrats, Johnson has an advantage in the vote preference. Men, voters without a college degree, White evangelical Christians, and rural voters like Johnson.
Women, voters with college degrees, voters in urban areas, voters 65 and younger, and voters with a higher income favor Barnes. Voters in suburbs are divided sharply. Nearly identical percentages of Johnson’s supporters (61%) and Barnes’ supporters (58%) back their candidate “enthusiastically,” but a 7-point difference separates those who support Barnes from those who say they do so because they dislike Johnson.
Wisconsin voter enthusiasm and level of support surveyed. Johnson has succeeded in painting Barnes as radical; as of September, 36% of independents shared that opinion, an increase from 19% in August. Republicans are more worried than ever about Barnes’ extremist views, up from 56% to 84%.
I couldn’t agree more with President @BarackObama. Ron Johnson tried to destroy our democracy…so he has absolutely no business serving as a United States Senator. pic.twitter.com/U56JwworSZ
— Mandela Barnes (@TheOtherMandela) October 30, 2022
Johnson’s opinions are too radical, according to 87% of Democrats and 41% of independents. 44% of people are concerned that Barnes and Johnson are acting too outspokenly overall.
The top two concerns for Wisconsin residents in choosing how they will vote in the Senate are inflation (30%) and abortion (24%). Voters who prioritize inflation support Johnson (+64 points), while those who support abortion support Barnes (+54).
According to Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who co-directs the Fox poll with Democrat Chris Anderson, “Wisconsin is extremely competitive, as expected.”
“Two facts serve as Johnson’s advantages. First, there are several topics where the public prefers the GOP. He has also succeeded in painting Barnes as being overly liberal. But the race is still close.” 49 percent of voters in the Badger State are satisfied with Evers’ performance as governor.
I was just in WI. The ground game there is just different than it was in 2016.
And then, this poll drops today:
Barnes 48
Johnson 46Mandela needs to ⏫his ad buy for the final week. Can you chip in something right now? cc @brianschatz @CoryBooker https://t.co/9Ej67Zudfx
— Chris Murphy (@ChrisMurphyCT) November 1, 2022
However, only 90% of those who are in favor of him back his reelection. As a result, the race for governor is close, with Tim Michels, a Republican, receiving 47% of the vote versus Bryan Evers’ 46%. It was 47% each last month.
Wisconsin voters were surveyed about their preferences for governor. The contest is likewise tied at 47% Evers to 48% Michels among those who indicate they will vote or have already voted.
Ask Wisconsin voters who have already cast their ballots or who plan to do so about their preferred gubernatorial candidate. Only 3% of those who supported Johnson in the Senate campaign voted for Evers in the governor’s race across party lines, and 2% of Barnes’ supporters voted for Michels.
The outcome of these elections will largely depend on voter turnout, according to Anderson. If Democrats win, it will probably be because more young people and women with college degrees turned out to vote.
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