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Predicting auroras is a tricky task. A lull and a rush are commonplace (known as sub-storms). Waiting and luck are the keys to success if you are out there. Here are a few things you can use to improve your odds.
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Real-Time Aurora Borealis Prediction:
The Aurora will be larger if the Kp number is higher, as shown above for the next few minutes:
The Soft Serve News Aurora Prediction Program estimates that . . .
in 1 minute, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 0.67 — Quiet
in 5 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 0.67 — Quiet
in 9 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 1 — Quiet
in 13 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 1 — Quiet
(Refresh this page to update the above, it is updated on the server every 2 minutes)
Find the Kp number line on one of the following maps that fit the Kp number predicted above. Your location is optimal if it’s at or above the projected Kp line. To find out if your location falls within the next lower line, you’ll have to keep an eye out. The effects of ground-based light pollution and weather will be more pronounced in these more remote areas.
Real-Time Aurora Forecast Map
NOAA’s Ovation map is a useful tool for verifying activity. The Kp number provides useful information about the storm’s size, but the Ovation map does a better job of indicating whether or not you can see it. While Ovation is an average, it varies more slowly than the Kp forecast above. It provides a 20 to the 40-minute forecast of the aurora’s projected size, as well as a color-coded probability of witnessing the aurora over various locations on the planet. This is the most recent picture:
On this map, you want to look for a thick aurora band with some light yellow or orange (or even RED) parts rather than an uninspiring narrow (or transparent) band with primarily dark green.
It’s a beautiful evening in Seattle. Forecast calls for a solar storm tonight so might see Aurora Borealis!!! pic.twitter.com/IIyeint92X
— 🐢🐢🐢🐰Kat🦁🐢🐢🐢 (@Hyuktankhamun) November 21, 2019
Because this map shows Aurora’s overhead location, its size will be larger than depicted. Because it is possible to observe the aurora in directions other than 90 degrees straight up, the visible aurora covers a larger area (straight above your head). Depending on its brilliance, the Aurora can be seen at angles ranging from 45 degrees to 30 degrees below the horizon.
Real-Time Bz
The magnetic up/down orientation of the solar wind is given by Bz. A negative Bz is preferable to a positive Bz if an Aurora occurs. A negative Bz makes it easier for the solar wind to interact with the Earth’s magnetic field, resulting in an Aurora. So, a negative Bz is a positive. More negativity is always preferable.
This diagram shows a five-minute rolling average of Bz values collected along the path of the solar wind stream. This information is derived from a satellite that is approximately 1 million miles away. Every one of these five-minute portions of the stream is making its way to the planet. Within the next 20 to 40 minutes, expect them to show up. With the first five-minute average coming first, they’re given out in that order. Consider each number as a cloud of solar wind racing towards Earth for five minutes. Remember that Bz is better off being negative, and the more negative he is, the better off he will be.
Earth Light & Moonlight Pollution:
Dark. It’s a gloomy scene. Insufficient light isn’t the only issue. When the sun is on the other side of the world, the Aurora will be at its largest. Late at night or early in the morning, the darkness is ideal. But you also need to get away from the city lights and allow your eyes to acclimate to the darkness before you venture into the night.
Northern Lights are best seen when they are far away from the Earth’s natural light sources. Seeing a full moon hurts a little because it brightens the sky, which makes it difficult to see. Better if the moon is darker than usual. This is the moon’s current appearance.
Your Local Weather:
Because auroras occur in the upper atmosphere, seeing one while under a blanket of clouds is out of the question. Aurora viewing is best when the weather is cold and clear:
Location:
Even though they’ve witnessed auroral sub-storms as far south as Cuba, the north is where you need to go for the best chances of seeing them. One can see the Aurora farther south if it is powerful enough to do so. The size of the aurora oval may be seen on the Kp maps (above) (also above). A compass is also useful in case you’re unsure which direction is up.
The Problem With Seeing the Aurora:
In two months, when the Aurora is peaking in your location, you’ll be sitting on the couch instead of out in the woods to catch a glimpse of it.
Why? Because you were ignorant of its existence.
Seeking out the Aurora Borealis can be problematic for this reason alone. There is no set time for it to run. Auroras might occur in 30 minutes or less on occasion.
That’s why you need a partner to keep an eye on things for you. When the conditions are correct, someone will monitor the Aurora data and alert you instantly.
If you want to see the Aurora, sign up for Aurora Alerts and have them sent to your specific area.
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