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Set Your Wagers: Important Nevada Senate Election Virtually Tied Amid Financial Crisis

In the crucial Senate race in Nevada, Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is holding onto a one-point lead over Republican opponent Adam Laxalt, according to a recent USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll. Voters are split 45%-44% as the race enters its final week, which is considered critical to determining which party controls the U.S. Senate.

Republicans’ best opportunity to flip a Democratic-held seat is in Nevada, according to Republican strategists, which could change the Senate’s current 50-50 power distribution. Electoral contests in the midterms will determine who controls the Senate. One indication of the state’s significance is the fact that Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak, Cortez Masto, and former President Barack Obama are all scheduled to campaign in Las Vegas on Tuesday.

At an event in Minden last month, former President Donald Trump supported Laxalt, Joe Lombardo, and other Republican candidates. The poll shows a 43%-43% tie in the governor’s race between Sisolak and Clark County Sheriff Lombardo. Sisolak defeated Laxalt in his maiden run for governor in 2018, becoming the first Democrat to lead the state in twenty years.

The margin of error for the landline and mobile survey of 500 likely midterm voters, conducted from October 24-28, is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. More than twice as many Nevada voters, 48%, describe the state’s economy as “bad” as the 21% who say it is “great” or “good.”

That rating is significantly more pessimistic than the USA TODAY/Suffolk poll conducted in early October, in which 38% of respondents rated the economy as poor. 37% of those polled in April rated it as poor. 33% did so in August.

While not exactly stellar, Biden’s job approval rating of 42% approve to 54% disapprove is an improvement above the 35%-59% rating he obtained in April. In the November election, Democratic senator from Nevada Catherine Cortez Masto will oppose Adam Laxalt of the Republican Party.

Despite growing economic worries, many voters still find the abortion debate to be powerful. 40% of respondents to the August poll as well as the current one assessed the abortion debate as having a “10” on a scale of 1 to 10, or as having the greatest influence on their vote.

In August, 23% of respondents evaluated the topic as having no impact on their vote, or “1.” That percentage has now increased to 26%. Receive the Everyone’s Talking newsletter through email. The Senate election pits town against rural.

According to David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, “Adam Laxalt is hammering Cortez Masto in the 14 rural counties, as well as Carson City.” Although she is losing in the central Nevada rural areas, she is winning Nevada’s largest county, Clark.

In the state’s central region, Laxalt, a former state attorney general, has a 3-1 advantage (67%-22%). However, in Clark County, which includes Las Vegas, and in Washoe County, which includes Reno, Cortez Masto is ahead by 49% and 40%, respectively.

Independents are split 43% to 30% in favor of Laxalt. For Blacks, Hispanics, and union families, Cortez Masto is ahead by 55 points, 10 points, and 15 points, respectively. The Democrat performs well among those who have already cast their ballots (52%-39%), as well.

Endangered Democrat in Nevada Senate race sees lead decline, according to a USA TODAY/Suffolk poll. Adam Laxalt, a Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate from Nevada, talks at a “Get Out The Vote” rally on October 22, 2022, in Las Vegas.

Corte Masto has maintained her support since the spring, but she has had difficulty growing it. She scored 40% in the April survey, 45% in August, 46% at the beginning of October, and 45% right now. The support for Laxalt has likewise remained quite consistent: 43% in April, 38% in August, 44% in early October, and currently 44%.

Five percent of voters, including a noteworthy 11% of independents, claim to still be uncertain. A distinct option on the Nevada ballot, “None of these candidates,” is being selected by 3% of voters. Three third-party candidates are garnering a combined 4% of the vote.

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